Section 10
Financial Projections
5-year forecast with blended revenue from all tiers
TL;DR
$22K in, compound reinvestment model, $2-5M Year 1, $80-150M Year 5. The key insight: with $350 CAC and payback period under 1 month, every dollar of gross profit reinvested into ads compounds exponentially. Initial $13K marketing budget (after setup costs) turns into $1.9M ad spend by month 12. Blood work at $365 funnels to $400/month peptide subscriptions with 60%+ gross margins. This is how Medvi reached $401M Y1 with $130-170M marketing spend — same infrastructure, same math, but with ethics, compliance, and pre-filled pens. Year 5 base case: $100M revenue, 23% net margin, 28,000 subscribers. No outside investors needed.
Year 1 Revenue
$2-5M
Year 5 Revenue
$80-150M
Break-even
Month 4-5
Initial Investment
$22K
Revenue Projection (5-Year)
Margin Evolution
Customer Growth
Projected P&L
| Line Item | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.5M | $15.0M | $35.0M | $65.0M | $100.0M |
| COGS | $1.4M | $5.3M | $11.2M | $19.5M | $28.0M |
| Gross Profit | $2.1M | $9.8M | $23.8M | $45.5M | $72.0M |
| Marketing | $1.5M | $5.5M | $11.0M | $18.0M | $25.0M |
| Operations | $200K | $800K | $2.0M | $3.5M | $5.0M |
| Tech & Infra | $50K | $150K | $350K | $600K | $1.0M |
| Legal & Regulatory | $80K | $200K | $400K | $600K | $800K |
| Admin | $50K | $150K | $300K | $500K | $700K |
| EBITDA | $220K | $3.0M | $9.8M | $22.3M | $39.5M |
| Net Income | $280K | $2.1M | $6.3M | $13.7M | $23.0M |
Unit Economics Evolution
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAC | $350 | $330 | $310 | $290 | $270 |
| LTV | $2,400 | $3,200 | $4,000 | $4,800 | $5,600 |
| LTV:CAC | 6.9x | 9.7x | 12.9x | 16.6x | 20.7x |
| ARPU | $400/mo | $420/mo | $440/mo | $460/mo | $480/mo |
| Monthly Churn | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% |